If Kabul falls, Kashmir cannot be kept


As of writing this post, it has been over 16 years since a US led coalition overthrew the Taliban Government in Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 attacks- the deadliest act of terrorist violence in all of American history. The subsequent insurgency by the Taliban and its Jihadist allies against the Western backed democratic Government in Kabul has led to hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded, including tens of thousands of Civilians. The NATO led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission, and the subsequent Resolute Support Mission that replaced it from 2015 onwards, have suffered more than 3,400 dead and 22,000 wounded. Another 2000 Civilian Contractors have also died in the Conflict, with 15,000 more wounded.

Add to these figures the tens of thousands of the Afghan dead, and many more wounded that each of the two sides in this War, the Afghan Government (close to 22,000 dead) and the opposing Jihadist Factions (upwards of 40,000 dead according to some estimates) have suffered, on top of the horrific magnitude of civilian dead and wounded already mentioned, the catastrophic human cost of this War becomes very apparent.

The Afghan Conflict has also taken an immensely painful financial toll, specifically on its Chief financier, the United States, with estimates of the monetary cost of the War now running from 841 billion US dollars, to well into the trillions. Observers from across the political spectrum have labelled the entire War effort in Afghanistan a calamitous failure, calling it an incredibly costly strategic mistake at best, or a counterproductive geo-political blunder of epic proportions at worst. It’s tough to deny these critical conclusions considering that after nearly 16 years of ceaseless fighting, very little has been achieved on the ground: The Internationally recognised Government in Kabul continues to lose territory to a tireless and unrelenting Jihadist Insurgency, losing several thousand men each year to combat casualties in the process (and substantially greater numbers to desertion). To make matters worse, the notorious Islamic State has also succeeded in establishing a foothold in a region along the country’s border with Pakistan.

Taking all these grim facts into account, the proposal that I intend to present now will prima facie appear entirely irrational and perhaps, even delusional; I would like to make the case for a massive Indian military intervention in Afghanistan, spanning at the least several years, to back up the Kabul Government and pacify the country. I strongly believe in the urgent need for such strong action to secure India from grave geo-political, and might I add, civilisational threats, emanating from the dire state of affairs in Afghanistan.

Lessons of History

To truly comprehend why Afghanistan is so important to the future course of political and social events in the Indian sub-continent, we need to look back at the History of migration and conquest in the Indian sub-continent over the past several thousand years. I’ll begin my historical analysis from around the year 1900 BC, which roughly corresponds with the beginning of Indo-Aryan intrusions and settlement in the North western peripheries of the sub-continent. The initial base in that period for the first of the Indo-Aryans to establish themselves in South Asia was the region roughly corresponding with modern day southern Afghanistan and parts of north-western Pakistan, which are areas mostly inhabited by Iranic tribes of Pashtuns today.

It was from this base in the region of Gandhara that the Indo-Aryans went on to settle and conquer much of the rest of India, establishing the primacy of their religion and language over that of the Natives, i.e. the Dravidians and the Aboriginals. Even till as late as the early 11th Century, Gandhara was an Indo-Aryan/Indic kingdom, but alas fell with finality to the armies of Mahmud of Ghazni, marking the beginning of Islamic predominance in that region.

Just as Indo-Aryan tribes had utilised their base in modern day Afghanistan for their eventual conquest of much of the entirety of the Indian sub-continent, similarly, after the collapse of the Kabul Shahi dynasty, the Afghan region became a springboard for further Muslim invasions of other Indic lands, culminating in several centuries of often despotic Islamic rule across most of South Asia. Prior to the arrival of European Colonialists to Indian shores, the North-Western route from Afghanistan has been the most natural route utilised by foreign aggressors for invading/subjugating India proper. Apart from the Vedic Aryans and various groups of Muslims, the North-Western route was a also used by a number of other invading tribes/entities such as the Scythians, Huns, Greeks etc.

Keeping this historical context in mind, it boggles the mind how the Indian political establishment has purposely kept us away from any sort of significant political/military involvement in the Afghan theatre. The one route of conquest to which our whole Civilisation has been immensely vulnerable to throughout history cannot be neglected in such manner any longer, at least if we seek to avoid the fate that befell our forbears.

Protecting Kashmir

The Kashmir conflict is particularly ominous with regard to the likely ramifications of a victory for Islamic fundamentalism in Afghanistan. The worst years of separatist violence in the Vale of Kashmir and its environs, from the mid 90s to the early 2000s, coincide closely with the period of Islamist supremacy in Afghanistan; within two years of the downfall of the Taliban regime, there was the beginning of a precipitous decline in separatist violence within the State of Jammu and Kashmir, as the focus of Jihadist militancy in South Asia again shifted back to the battlefields of Afghanistan.

I strongly believe that as soon as Jihadist forces are able to overcome the Internationally recognised government in Kabul, they will not waste time before they move on to the next hotbed of extremism in the region, that is, the Kashmir Valley. It is only obvious that when tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of these hardened extremists are without work and purpose in Afghanistan, they will swiftly fill in to back extremist forces in countries nearby, effectively negating any progress that has been made in Kashmir so far.

On top of these immediate security considerations, there is also the question of International regard for Indian hard power at the International stage. As of now, apart from minor States neighbouring India, almost no one takes Indian military might seriously globally. This lack of recognition for our hard power translates to a rather weak bargaining position in most International forums, as well as the lack of momentum behind the goal of establishing the Indian State as a world power in a multi-polar world. If we continue to keep our heads in the sand in our own neighbourhood, we will never command the respect, or even loyalty, of our allies internationally.

The sure shot way of ensuring our security from geopolitical threats from the North West in the short term, and preserving the frontiers of our Civilisation in the long term is to take a more hands-on approach in Afghanistan. Afghan forces have proven time and again that they are not capable of stemming the tide of Jihadist violence in their country on their own. Thus, we must commit Indian troops and military resources on a scale that will not only allow the Afghan Government to maintain its current level of control, but also pacify the entire territory of Afghanistan and bring about an ultimate end to the Jihadist menace in that country.

Such an effort will require the deployment of tens of thousands of our men (if not more) and the incurring a few dozen billion US dollars at the very least, and could possibly last even decades. These may seem like daunting figures which it could be argued a relatively poor, developing country like ours cannot afford. However, neglecting Afghanistan while it descends into extremist violence and civil war once again will be a decision that will leave us with an apocalyptic cost to pay in the future, just as history has taught us so many times in the past.

5 thoughts on “If Kabul falls, Kashmir cannot be kept”

  1. So Just to clarify I’m understanding you correctly;
    You think just because in the 1900 BC when they were no border security, and no strong defense for Ruled Area and some Muslim were able to take over all India and south Asia, now India should waste billion us dollars money on a failed cause where a fully developed country have failed to establish peace with most advance military and tech in 12 years, while a very significant population of India is still living in poverty and no healthcare, education, food, just because you have slightest fear that they will threaten India in coming time.
    Today I found exact definition of pseudo-intellectual.
    Don’t advertise your shitty blogpost on indiachan, ever again.

  2. Quite right too,
    I am a Muslim living in Kargil
    Ladakh has a population of 40% Muslim we are larger than the BJP supporting Tibetan population here, the demographic change will tilt in a few years, if we manage to split the Buddhist vote, we become a Muslim controlled UT.
    Pakistan guards the border and prevents the Afghan mujahideen from entering India. They much rather control the insurgency by having their own Mujahideen.
    To enter here the Afghan mujahideen must face two armies both Indian and Pakistani.
    But you are quite right of the dangers, the insurgency in Kashmir is becoming indigenous no longer controlled by Pakistan. Youth here are forming their own groups, fighters are recruited locally, hence the acute shortage of arms.
    Weapons are only given by Pakistan to their approved outfits in the valley, they keep the insurgency on a slow boil, the intention is to keep the deployment of hundreds thousands of of Indian troops on the LOC, and also to keep the insurgency under their tight control.
    Pakistan fears self determination on the part of Kashmir which is also occupied by them. The indigenous insurgency is a nationalist one and seeks a greater independent Kashmiri nation.
    The Taliban has forced out the Americans. When Taliban fighters join the indigenous Mujahideen in Kashmir, it will present a formidable challenge to India, many years down the line it might just spread from Kashmir to the 200 million Muslims in India, who so far have been docile, complainant and timid.
    That is why there is informal co operation between the Intelligence agencies of Pakistan and India, towards stopping the Afghan Mujahideen.
    Jordon Peterson and IQ :
    we in Kashmir are nutritionally much better off than an average Indian, once independent of both India and Pakistan, we will rapidly advance to a middle income country due to a even distribution of higher IQ.
    India will never be able to pull itself up by its bootstraps, not only low IQ, but India has missed the boat regarding positive aspects of its demographic bulge. The bulge will now have a massive negative effect, there will be trouble with the huge number of aspirational low IQ, imperfect educated youth, who are coming into the job market in the millions.
    These people have very low productivity, this combined with automation, AI and water shortage, due climate change will spell disaster for India.
    Since you are so obsessed about Muslims let’s see what I can say about you Hindus….
    If you wish to save Hinduism, one way is for you to abandon your lower caste. Their IQ is mostly below 80 anyway.
    You Brahmins and selected upper castes could create an elite state within a state, or establish their own state in a part of India.
    You will have to clean up your own defecation and wash your own backsides without the lower castes, but the rewards will be great.
    I have no doubt a pure high IQ, exclusively Brahmin state would eventually be akin to Singapore.
    impossible idea? But strange things can happen a hundred years hence.
    These untouchables are no good instead of only advocating against Muslims get rid of your lower castes as well

  3. Hi
    Are you a Kashmir Pundit?
    We will welcome the Pundits back because they make a valuable contribution to Kashmir, although they were exploitive in the past the Pundit is an integral part of our lands. We wish them to take their rightful honourable place in our Kashmiri society.
    The Pundit should be leading Kashmiri nationalism along with his Muslim brothers instead of joining Indian foreigners, to whom the only connection is some vague concept of Hindu.
    There is no such thing as Hinduism, it’s only the caste system as much as the BJP pretends it’s a religion like Islam and Christianity. Hinduism just an umbrella term for a hotch potch of beliefs. Muslims gave you the term Hindu, everyone living in India is a Hindu.
    The Brahmins are on the other hand the invader, just like the Muslims who came to India as foreigners and made it their homes. The Brahmin did when the conquered set up the most vicious system of exploitation akin to slavery. Muslim rule was benign and enlightened compared to the Brahmin rule.
    The Brahmin always held sway of the villages in India, whereas the Mughals presence was hardly felt on the lives at India’s village community and economy .
    But the Brahmin was omnipresent and powerful, he exploited the lower castes, religiously, economically and culturally and still does today. Generations of exploitation has given the Brahmin a nutritional advantage hence a high IQ. The rest of India due to the thousand year old Brahminical system has the lowest IQ in the world.

    Are you on social media, Facebook ?

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